1 February 1985

Southeast Asia Report



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JPRS- SEA- 85-020

1 February 1985





Writer Analyzes Election Campaign Results (Frank Knopfelmacher; THE AGE, 13 Dec 84).........0000008:

Editorial Analyzes USACDA Official's Visit (THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD, 13 Dec 84).....ccceeececcceces

Senator Urges Asia Inclusion in CER (THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD, 6 Dec 84)........ ecccccccccccccss

Auto Link to CER Boosts Trade (THE AGE, 13 Dec 84)..... s*eeeeneneeeee:. e*eneeeeeenteeneneneteenereeeeeeete

Bank of China Plans To Compete in Sydney (Mark Baker; THE AGE, 14 Dec _) PPPPTTTITiIrrr+rysyT eee ee eevee

Industry Report Warns of Dwindling Oil Reserves (Tim Allerton; THE AUSTRALIAN, 14 Dec 84)......eeeeeeeeees

Asian Coal Markets Lost by Railroad Strike (THE AUSTRALIAN, 15-16 Dec BePeccoce eee eee eee eeeee eee ee eeee

ROK, Japan Switch, by Alan Goodall Editorial Criticizes Strike

New Minister Emphasizes Self-Reliance in Defense (Ross Peake; THE AUSTRALIAN, 13 Dec 84) ....ceeeeeeeeeecees

Country's Economic Situation Reviewed (Voice of the People of Burma, 12 Jam 85)...eseeeeeeeeeecees

-a- [III - ASIA -




Battle Report From Shan State 19 CAMBODIA National Day Greetings From Bulgaria, Cuba, GDR KEeme BS FOR Ga) ccccccccccececcccces ecccccccccccccoccecoces 20 MPR, Afghan Greetings to PRK's Heng Samrin (SPK, 16 Jan 85)..... THTTTITTTTTT TT TTT Terie oeccce eccccces 22 Briefs Indian Leaders Send Greetings 23 INDONESIA

Eruption of Dissension in PPP Reported (Various sources, various dates)...... TU VTTTYTTTTTTTTTTy 24

Party Declaration Urged Justification Demand

Recall From DPR Demanded Syarifuddin, Achda Statement Syarifuddin Blamed for Problems Resignation Demanded

More on New Rift in Development Union Party (PELITA, various dates; MERDEKA, 7, 10 Dec 84)........+.4+- 31

Call for Party Discipline Syarifuddin Says Congress Failed Action Sought Against Syarifuddin Syarifuddin's Charges Rebutted Syarifuddin Wants Special Congress Islamic Union Suspends Syarifuddin

Problems of Transmigration in East Kalimantan Discussed (PELITA, 29 Nov Bed ccceeceese see eeee *eseieeeeeeeeeeveeern- eee e 40

Mokhtar on SRV Vietnamization of Cambodia (THE JAKARTA POST, 12 Jan +) PPPPTTEPELELELTTTTrrrreyrrrree 42

Parliament Member Warns on Trade With China (AFP, 16 Jan 4b) PPP TTTTPPPPTTTTTeTerereeeeerereserereree 43

Minister Discusses Business Slump (KOMPAS, 28 Nov LD PPTTETTLILITILITITrrererereseeesrrrese eee 44

Some Companies Suspend Production Due to Slump (SINAR HARAPAN, 28 Nov BEd eccccccecs se ef fe 8 © *eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 46

Pertamina May Again Have Crude Oil Refined in Singapore

Pe Cs OP OM cccccedesedeodecesncocoeecseeceece 47 General Concerns About Future Middle-Ranking Officer Shortage (SINAR HARAPAN, 30 Nov 84).............. eccccccescoccccecoes 49 Briefs Krakatau Steel Losing Money 51 LAOS Briefs Bulgarian Cultural Delegation Visits 52 Bulgarian Delegation's Departure 52 FRC Aid Materials 52 Caubodian Photo Exhibition 52 Schools With SRV Assistance 53 Construction Projects in 1984 53 Roads, Bridges in Khammouane 53 MALAYSIA

Iran Denies Aiding Malay Political Parties (SARAWAK TRIBUNE, 10 Dec 6b cbesedbedsesecocooses “eee ee eee 54

Editorial Notes Communist Failure Among Malays (SARAWAK TRIBUNE, 7 Dec 84) .....cccecceesecees ecccccecccce » 35

Government Moves To Boost Population Growth (Khalid Jaafar; BUSINESS TIMES, 7 Dec 84)..... pececececs secoe

Government To Monitor Iranian Militants (Nor Hawa Yunus, Sabry Sharif; NEW STRAITS TIMES, 12 Dec DED 6 66566680600660006 006RS CC CCeOeESOOCOCOCES re © ** 57

Libya Offered Technical Knowhow (BUSINESS TIMES, 13 Dec 84)..... ccccccccceccccccccsoccoccee IF

Joint Call With Libya for South-South Cooperation (BUSINESS TIMES, 13 Dec 84)... .ccccsscccscsssesevess cccccecs 60

Joint Firm To Boost Trade With Libya (BUSINESS TIMES, 12 Dec 84). ..ccccccccscceces peececeocs seco G2

Joint Projects Signed With Cairo (BUSINESS TIMES, 13 Dec 84). ..cccceccsccesesesseesaseneeees 62

Saudi Wood Purchases Up (Hamidah Hamid; BUSINESS TIMES, 14 Dec 84) .......eceeeecees 63

Oil Reserves Up With New Discoveries

(NEW STRAITS TIMES, 15 Dec 84)......cccccccees eccccece eccecee 695 Briefs Trade Surplus With Philippines 66 Trade Deficit Decreased 66 Incentive for Foreign Investment 66 Military Agency Privatized 66 New Thai Ambassador 67 Vigilante Corps Scheme 67 NEW ZEALAND

Australia Cabinet Changes May Favor Wellington (THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD, 12 Dec 84)....cccccccccccccsececess 68

Opposition Leader Predicts 1/-Percent Inflation (THE PRESS, 13 Dec mébns00006602060066 “ee ereeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 69

Government Holds Firm on Money Policy (THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD, 15 Dec 84)....ccccecccscccccesseees 0

Car Industry Responds Favorably to Government Plan (THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD, 13 Dec Ded ceccccceeseeeeeseneesoees 72

Editorial Lauds EEC Butter Reversal (THE PRESS, 15 Dec PPT TTTTPrrerereereseeeereyeyeryryrryryryryryryrryree 74

Briefs Swedish Daily Interviews Lange 76


Reportage on 1-4 December 1984 WPC Meeting in Manila (Various sources, variouS dateS)....cccccccececcceccseseseee If

Bigornia Criticizes WPC, by Jesus Bigornia PRAVDA Report, by L. Kuznetsov Distancing From U.S. Seen, by Yuri Lugovskoi

Former Official Urges Marcos To Dissolve Parliament (Rod Villa, BULLETIN TODAY, 12 Dec 84)....cceesesesseseseee 80

Provincial Daily Views Yniguez Wit, Candor

(Gil Abarico; THE MINDANAO DAILY MIRROR, 12 Dec 84)........ 81 Davao Archbishop, RUC XI Commander Hold Talks

(THE MINDANAO DAILY MIRROR, 12 Dec DA dccccccccccccceceecnes 83

Davao Strikers’ Slogans Invoke ‘Red Army’, NPA, NDF (THE MINDANAO DAILY MIRROR, 12 Dec 84)....cccceecccceeeeeese 84


Board of Investments Report Shows Ups, Downs (Arleen C. Chipongian; PHILIPPINES DAILY EXPRESS,

BZ BOS TE) cccccccccccccccccecs occccccce cccccccccccccccccccoce 86 PRC Emerges as Oil Supplier

(BULLETIN TODAY, 12 Dec 84)..... eccccccce ecccece pecccccccccce 88 Sugar Commission Confirms Output Fall

(J. C. Concepcion; PHILIPPINES DAILY EXPRESS, 13 Dec 84).... 89 Northern Luzon NPA Encounters Take Six Lives

(PHILIPPINES DAILY EXPRESS, 13 Dec 84)........... eccccccccecs 90 1984 Coconut Export Earnings Up Over Last Year

(J. C. Concepcion; BULLETIN TODAY, 13 Dec 84)...... cccccecce 92 More Clashes With NPA, Deaths Reported

(Isidro M. Roman; BULLETIN TODAY, 13 Dec 84).......eeeeee00% 93 Davao del Norte NPA Clash Kills 19

(THE MINDANAO DAILY MIRROR, 13 Dec 84).... cc cccececccceeees 94 Davao Bank Manager Arrested for NPA Connections

(PLOPLE'S DAILY FORUM, 13 Dec SOP occcccveccsoccces eevee . 95 Radio Veritas on Program to Honor ‘Victims of Oppression'

(Radio Veritas, 17 Jan DP eceecocccoesoeesnceeeeesees ee fe © @ © 97 Briefs

Commission Chairman, Deputy Justice Minister 95


Chit Fund Operations Described, Countermoves Noted

(THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD, 14 Dec BA cccceccccecceecees eee ff © 99 Government Support To Finance Firms

(THE NATION REVIEW, 27 Dec —) FPPPTTTTT TT TTT TTT TTT Tee ee ff © 101 Export Promotion, Industrial Production Discussed

(THE NATION REVIEW, 1 Jan | PPT TT TTT TTrTeryTyTyT Te ese eeeee 102


Hanoi Urges PRC To Stop ‘Crimes’ in Border Area

(Hanoi International Service, 17 Jam 85) ..cceeceseceeeseeces 105

Hanoi English on PRC ‘Acts of War Escalation"

(Hanoi International Service, 17 Jan 85).......ccccccccccees 107 Briefs Yugoslav Flood Relief 109 ODR Journalists Delegation 109 Indian Books Presented 109 Province Doubles Export Value 109 NHAN DAN Criticizes Thailand's Unfriendliness 109 PRC Threat 110


NHAN DAN on Grassroots Party Militancy

(Editorial; Hanoi Domestic Service, 10 Jan 85)...... YTTTTyTy | Do Muoi Attends Engineering, Metals Conference

(Hanoi Domestic Service, 12 Jan 85)...cccccccccccccccees wee el lS Pham Van Dong Meets With Intellectuals, Artists

(Hanoi Domestic Service, 13 Jan 85)... cccccccccccccccseseses 115



Ben Tre Food Production 117

JPRS-SEA-85-020 i Fepruary 1985



[News Analysis by Frank Knopfelmacher: “Hawke Still Facing an Unholy Alliance"™}

[text] AUSTRALIAN elections are not momentous affairs for us and for the world because fundamental decisions of any kind are not made in this country. This applies to all elements of statecraft to strategy, to cultural change, and to the economy.

The election of the Whitlam Government of 1972-75 is sometimes quoted as an example to the country, eg, by Donald horne. This judgment is attributable to an optical illusion, which commonly occurs when a political demagogue associ- ates himself, more of less fortuitously, with a major cultural change which would have come about in any case.

The cultural change was the sudden collapse, after years of internal erosion, of the only genuinely conservative movement this country has ever known: the NCC-DLP complex.

Its political influence held up, even if it could not prevent, the full exten- sion into Australia, of cultural modernity, associated with such things as sexual and gender “liberation”, the decline of familism, unwillingness to fight in wars, and, generally the rest of what John Carroll calls the remis- sive culture.

Whether this development was a good or bad thing is not for a newspaper colum- nist to judge and for a social scientist to moralise about.

Since the carrier of Australia's only conservative movement was the Irish- Catholic constituent of the nation, the collapse must be sought in alterations within that constituent.

There were predominantly two: the theological ravages of Vatican II and the rapid upward social mobility of the Irish-Australians. It is notable that even in this case, the causation was largely induced from abroad (Vatican II).

The Whitlam regime thus became the political superstructure of a flood of cul- tural modernism, formulated, as most other things Australian, abroad. for even the manner and style of Australia’s occasional rebell‘ ms against the “colonial cringe” are actual examples of it.

Geopolitically, Australia is an anglomorph enclave in an increasingiy turbu- lent and unpredictable alien milieu. it is wealthy in mineral and strategi: resources which makes it a tempting prey and is effectively indefensible by

its own efforts for both material and psychological reasons.

its security rests on membership of an America-led defensive alliance againnt the Soviet Union of which it is a severely undercontributing member.

The lack of geopolitical consciousness of the population is attributable to isolation-cum-distance which have acted hitherto as a protective shield against real experience of clear and present dangers of the kind which formed the consciousness, say, of the founders of modern Israel, and which marked the Situation in England in the crucial years of 1940-41, when the people o! USrit- ain saved the world.

That offensive and misleading movies should be concocted in this country just now about this most heroic period in British history is, presumably, not quite coincidental.

The effective military severance, in 1942, of Australia from its “resource country” has left a permanent “hole on the top” in Australia's body politic.

Like Germany after the demise of Bismarck, although for different reascns, Australia lacks a class of people from which self-confident rulers can be re- cruited. People of great talent who abound here, as 30 years of university teaching have convinced me, do not seem to choose politics and related profes- sions (eg, the social sciences) as their vocation, particularly not on the LNP Right. For the function of compradors does not seem to attract the best and the brightest.

Uf the available talent Mr Hawke showed the greatest potential. Power brought out the best in him. It acted on him not as a drug of addiction but as a re- storative nutrient.

lt was evident from the day of his election as Prime Minister that he had to face an unholy alliance of enemies: the Socialist Left and its allies in the media on one flank, and the LNP coalition on the other, with plenty of trattic in anti-Hawke dirt going on between the two.

The object of the campaign was to destroy Mr Hawke personally by an unrelent- ing campaign of personal defamation and harrassment. Throughout the campaign, it was the LNP coalition which went beyond the limits of pertidy, dilferenti- ating the machiavellian politician from the mere political adventurer. for one cannot really blame Marxist-Leninists or their sympathisers for hating their natural and only effective enemy--the social democrat.

Ihe conduct throughout the Combe-Ivanov atfair, the Indo-Chinese immigrant “debate”, and, finally, the phone tapping incident sprung on Mr Hawke virtu- ally at the eve of polling date, have not only “de-authorised™ it for the tuture, but have to some extent disqualitied its alleged achievements retro- actively, dating back to the Labor split. The LNP has also added a new unattractive animal to our political zoo, by its exploitation of the AIDS problea: the political vampire, battening on the blood of the sick and the deviate.

The situation cannot be cured by a change in personnel--if anything Mr Peacock showed distinct evidence of personal unease whenever his colleagues issued in- vitations to visit the nether regions of the gutter. Individuals do not real- ly matter in all this. It is a question of social types and social strata, whose “British” rules of seemliness are vanishing and whose values are re- stricted solely to privilege and money (they call it “monetarism") without a trace of “toryism" or noblesse oblige.

The Anglo-colonial patriciate of Australia is being replaced by a banana- republic lumpenbourgeoisie, without style, loyalty or courage, and entirely without moral guidelines.

Mr Hawke's pyrrhic victory of 1 December shows that the joint LNP-SL campaign has partly succeeded, for Mr Hawke's most urgent problem--the effective con- tainment of the destructive Left within his own party--will from now on be much wore difficult.

| for one have never accepted the dangerous nonsense that Mr Hawke's power is predominantiy charismatic, in the precise technical sense given to the world by Max Weber. Mr Hawke's gift is not to dispense “grace” but good sense.

His support does not come from besotted “followers” but from highly critical allies and essentially prudent and sceptical triends. He has a capacity of impressing sensible, non-deprived, and comfortable people, and he can articu- late what they stand for.

His appeal is, therefore, predominantly to the non-poor, non frustrated major- ity of the Australian nation, his explicit message is consensus and stability, and the implicit one--to hold and to defend what we have. His dread of extra- legal and “magic” gimmicks is well-known.

All these are the hallmarks of legal-rational rather than charismatic leader- ship. The tact that he is a good and cutting debater on his feet and that he emanates pride in solid achievements by hard work rather than humility are, again, utterly counter-charismatic features.

it seems that by “charisma” some journalists mean coherence, sense of purpose, proper pride, and the utilisation of persona) charm, qualities much nearer to what Max ‘‘eber called “The Protestant Ethic”.

Will Mr Hawke survive, psychologically and politically, the present rebuil?

The Socialist Left and its mouths in the media will consolidate and extend their pressure-devices. The politically not-quite-late Dr Cairns has already suggested before polling day the formation of a fully fledged “green” party, on an extra-parliamentary basis. The Left intelligentsia, which hates Mr Hawke more than any other politician | can remember in Australia, has now smelled blood and will make itself even more fully available to the banana- skin producers in the media.

The events in New Caledonia, the Philippines, New Guinea, possibly Indonesia, with a growing unwillingness of America to continue helping tnose too slothful to help themselves, quite apart from US priorities in Central America and in the Middle East, point to a possibly worsening military situation, requiring strong, intelligent leadership and a man up front who not only understands the politico-military variables, but whose concern for the defence of the open society is both paramount and beyond question.

Such a man is Mr Hawke and the dangers of New Zealandisation have increased manifold in a situation where he can be paraiysed or toppled. Our slightly better participation in the shaping of our own future may have been thwarted by the partly freakish misfortune of an ambiguous election.

Envy, the vice not of the poor but of the fellow affluents in egalitarian societies such as ours, will again shape our political climate, as it did since Mr Whitlam's misperceived “cultura] revolution”.

Which means that in all but unpredictable trivialities our next three years will again be shaped entirely from abroad.

CSO: 4200/376

JPRS-SEA-85-020 { FepRuaRY 1985

AUSTRALIA EDITORIAL ANALYZES USACDA OFFICIAL'S VISIT Sydney THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD in English 13 Dec 84 p 8 [Editorial: "The Politics of Arms Control"] [Text] § LAST WEEK'S visit by Mr tions for a CTB

David Emery, Director of the US Arms Control and Disar-

(Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty). A demarche is only a

mament Agency, was low key formal proceeding or statement in style. But Mr Emery’s mes- of position, but as such it made sage, conveyed with consider- the US position perfectly plain.

able diplomatic skill and with refreshing intellectual clarity, makes two things quite clear. The first is that for all its NDP-oriented posturing over nuclear disarmament, the Hawke Government will not have any influence on nuclear arms-control talks between the superpowers in January or at any other time. The second is that Mr Hayden's earlier threats that Australia might

In the first place, the US maintains it—must close the nuclear weapons capability gap between itself and the USSR. In the second, it maintains that because verification procedures for monitoring underground nuclear explosions are still inadequate a CTB, for which Australia calls, is still a long way off. Maybe so. Many nuclear experts reject the US

ition on both issues, believ-

move to use the US facilities at ing the alleged gap is illusory North-West Cape and central and believing adequate verifi- Australia as “bargaining chips cation pr ures for an effec-

to obtain nuclear arms-control concessions from the US are empty threats and no more. There is no way in which the facilities could be used as bargaining chips without endangering the alliance fatally. Moreover, two of them undoubtedly have a deterrent monitoring capability. The US made its position crystal clear in its demarche, delivered to the Prime Minister's Department last week, referring to Austra- lia’s support in UN organisa-

tive CTB already exist in the form of a global network of seismic monitoring stations. While this may be true it is nevertheless the US espe- cially its Senate and the USSR, and its military com- plex, which have to make these strategically and technologi- cally complex decisions, not Australia. And that is exactly what Mr Emery came here to tell us.

There is no douht that the



Hawke Government has cause for electoral concern over the rapid growth of anti-nuclear sentiment here. But in his gzandstanding on the issue Mr awke clearly never t the situation through. Mr Emery has. The first thing he did was to puncture any illu- sions, harboured by the Australian Government or NDP supporters, on US sup- port for a nuclear-free South cific. The US, he said, would accept establishment of such a zone provided it allowed for innocent of US shi and planes which might nuclear-armed. The US will not req | them any more than the USSR will identify its own = to sh 9 ve | clear r very that if any South Pacific nation was opposed to the peaceful passage of US ships which might be nuclear-armed, the US would not become involved in even a limited nuclear free zone. Thi: is a clear warning to New Zealand to rethink its on visits by US nuclear-armed ships. But his ecgees message requests Australia an particularly New Zealand to realise that in the US view their present nuclear policies are cep: Mg = and, use strengthening the Soviet Union's capacity to stall on arms reduction talks. This is special pleading with a vengeance but cannot be entirely dismissed.


JPRS-SEA-85-020 1 Fepruary 1985

Auckland THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD in English 6 Dec 84 p 1

[Text }



A senior Australian opposition senator yes- terday called for the closer economic rela- ‘thons agreement with ‘New Zealand to be wid- ened to include Korea and Indonesia.

Senator Brian Archer, a former chairman of the Senate trade and com- merce committee said a trade initiative was needed to counter a major threat to Australia's Asian markets.

He said he totally sup- ed calls by the National armers’ Federation for a decisive step to stop Ameri- can and exporters from progressively locking Australia out of its tradi- tional Pacific basin markets.

other trading partners into CER will take time and much negotiation

...” Senator Archer said.

_ “Of course such negotia-

tions mean that each coun- try has to yield to receive, and the sooner we get into discussion with Indonesia and Korea and receive from them their ideas the better we will all be.”

The Liberal Party sena- tor said that if Australia did not revise its trading ar-

it would be left in the cold.

His proposal to expand CER coincided with the re- lease of official statistics yesterday showing a big ump in the value of Austra- a exports to New Zea-

Goods worth $A1.42 bil- lion were consigned in 1983- 84, and increase over the

year of more than million.



Melbourne THE AGE in English 13 Dec 84 p 23

[Text ]


Increased trade in motor vehicles and components will take place Dbetween Australia and New Zea- land under new arrangements an- nounced by the Federal Government yesterday.

The Minister for Trade, Mr Bowen, and Minister for Industry and Commerce, Senator Button, said yesterday that the vehicle in- dustry had been brought under the umbrella of the Closer Eco- nomic Relations agreement be- tween the two countries.

The move will increase trade and allow easier entry for ‘manufacturers.

Completely knocked down (CKD) vehicle units produced in Australia will be able to enter NZ free of import duty after the NZ motor vehicle plan starts in Janu- ary. Dvty was formerly 6.25 per cent.

A 35 per cent margin of duty preference by Australia for entry to NZ will also be slowly scaled down rather than the rapid phasedown under the previous arrangements.

Mr Bowen and Senator Button said the previous arrangements


J S-SEA-85-020 1 FepRuaRy 1985

were likely to have resulted in the elimination of a significant amount of Australian trade in CKD packs.

“However (the) slower rate of reduction... will provide the Australian industry with an oppor- tunity to increase its competitive- ness in the NZ market before the

Margin of preferences reduces to

a low level,” the Ministers said.

A virtual barrier to Australian- manufactured components has also been relaxed and imports of local components by NZ will now be allowed, albeit at a high tariff rate.

The NZ motor vehicle plan also provides for a considerable ex- pansion of exports of completely built up (CBU) vehicles from Aus- tralia.

In return, NZ manufacturers have been granted access to the local content plan for $15.3 mil- lion of NZ components.

Motor vehicle imports from NZ within quota will have a 37.5 per cent import duty preference un- der the new arrangements down from the nominal duty rate of 57.5 per cent.



Melbourne THE AGE in English 14 Dec 84 p 19

[Article by Mark Baker]

{Text }



The Bank of China plans to compete with Australian banks for savings deposits and other domestic busi- ness when it begins operations in Sydney in the new


if i I; : : i

He expected remaining formalities would be com- pleted soon and that the Sydney office would open in February. It was likely that the branch offices would open later in Melbourne and other cities.


JPRS-SEA-85-020 1 FepRuary 1985


JPRS-SEA-€5-020 i Fesruary 1985


LNDUSTRY REPORT WARNS OF DWINDLING OLL RESERVES Sydney THE AUSTRALIAN in English 14 Dec 84 p 13 [Article by Tim Allerton]

|fText}] AUSTRALIA is becoming less self-sufficient in cil and faces future balance of payments problems, according to amajor report prepared by Esso Australia Ltd.

Esso says the outlook for Australia's balance of payments surplus from energy exports such as coal, uranium and gas “are now lower than previously expected because of increased alternative sources of supply and lower estimates of future world energy demand".

fhe petroleum company says the production for existing oil discoveries has almost peaked, making the country 85 per cent self-sufficient, but the level could fall to 65 per cent by 1990 and to less than 20 per cent by 2000 if no new major reserves are found.

ln the past 10 years Ausralia has consumed about three times as much oil as explorers have been able to find, a problem which will worsen in the next 20 years if no new major discoveries are made.

ihe present peak of production is a result of an increase in the amount of indigenous oil used in Australia, the allowance of small but important export trade and an “excellent” industrial relations record during the past two

y ears".

in its fourth Australian Energy Outlook, Esso says seismic activity in Australia has declined from the high point in 1982, which is likely to lead to a downturn in drilling activity next year.

1s a result “insufficient oil discoveries are being made to replace present consumption", the report says.

“Unless this trend is arrested and a vigorous exploration industry maintained, Australia is unlikely to discover and develop sufficient new supplies of oil to prevent a serious decline in oil production and self-sufficiency in the late 1980s."


Director of Esso Mr Stuart McGill said yesterday that iike Federal Government's energy policies played a “vital factor in the devel. oat of the industry”, adding that “tax levels here are now high by anv sta. ‘s and further charges would downgrade predictions even further”.


He said the majority of Australian production was centred on light crued oi! where world demand was “soft™" and there would be a great need to continue in- porting heavier crude.

The report says local demand for oil supplies is likely to grow at a rate ol 2.4 per cent a year for the rest of the decade and just more than 2 per cent in the 1990s, while growth in other western countries will be just less than - per cent.

Conventional crude oil's share of the total demand for energy in Australia is expected to fall trom 41 per cent in 1983 to 35 per cent in 1990 and 29 per cent in 2000.

"While oil's share will fall in volume terms, demand for oil is expected to grow at a low rate of 0.1 per cent a year,” the report says.

There are now 2.1 billion barrels of known recoverable oil in Australia, but by the year 2000 Esso estimates that the country will have used 3.7 billion barrels.

The high usage is based on the almost total dependence of transport on oil- based Liquids and because the company does not see any significant alternative to keep the automotive industry moving.

Esso has also retreated from its earlier predictions that synthetic fuels will come onstream this decade, now predicting they would be here by the mid-1990s and contributing about 35,000 barrels a day in the year 2V000, boosting Aus- tralia's self-sufficiency by almost 6 per cent to 65 per cent.

But the company is still confident explorers will find more oil, even thoug)h Australia’s oil prospectivity is low by world standards.

But the fact remains that Australia will still need to import “significant amounts of oil", which is a reason why the company has complained to the Fed- eral Government about the Resource Rent Tax--an additional tax on oil exploration.

The report predicts that the total value of Australian energy exports will more than triple during the next 16 years from $4.4 billion to $14 billion, in present currency values.

“Australia's relatively secure and low-cost resources of coal, uranium end

natural gas will enable energy exports to increase very substantially over the next 16 years.”

CSO: 4200/376



JPRS-SEA-85-020 1 Fesruary 1005

ROK, Japan Switch

Sydney THE AUSTRALIAN in English 15-16 Dec 84 p 23

[Article by Alan Goodall]

[Text }

THE first of multi-million dollar export income losses began hitting Australia ves- terday as east Asian coal

coal exporting countries.

South Korea offered the first coal order diversion to South Africa, despite the South Korean Government 4

policy against buying frotm

the apartheid country.

Livey delay the setting of 1985 pri- ces for Hunter Valicy soft coking coal. China Light and Power Co, which first diverted from Australia in the 1981 New-

striking northern NSW train drivers not to resume coal deliveries to Newcastle and to stay out at least until next Thursday. a went out on November

The Hunter Valley coal in- dustry’s plight was described by mining executives as © dis- astrous, with worse tocome .


The 14 major shippers face total demurrage bill of $15 as unmoved coal

1c. PA tempereny switchboard ice ontd: "O0 many dney office : many saan have becn ringing all

day.” But at Australias major


Tokyo on January 16. was told to expect tough resist- ance from angry Japancse freelmakers.

A t\eading trade paprr. Japan Echo, reported yester- Gay the mills suspected Aus- tralia of intcntionally delay- ing a strike solution. Mull ne- gotuators. the paper claimed, would wait and see belore ne gouUuating

A group of Japanese buyers were shocked to sce this week Ss Stopwork Incetings of mincrs. Mining unions had Stopped work to review the Situation.

Mining companies fear the unions will order at Jeast three stoppages immediately the train drivers’ strike ends.

This would mean the huge uncieared stockpile would take longer than the {fore- casted two months to clear.

The chairman of Newcastle Coal Exporting Producers Association. Mr Bob Humph- ris, said the road-only trans-

port emergency was Jearning to cope and could hifi deliver- 7s to 40.0% tonnes a dat compared with optimum rail- road dreiveries of 100009 tonnes

“But even uf we get it up to 50.000 tonnes daily. the un- loaded ships will still queuc,” he said

Mr Humphris said no mines Nad yet closed and muincr layofis were being dclayed ir the hope that the Sta go. ernment and fellow u.sionin's would prevail on the striking train drivers

“I heard {rom Tokyo the mills are angry. They will still be angry as we try to rene gotiate contracts

“The Koreans are scriousiv considering another diver- S10) tO Maintain biends to their powerhouse:

“Once customers are jost like this they are Jost forever. We are all the losers.”

Editorial Criticizes Strike

Sydney THE AUSTRALIAN in English 15-16 Dec 84 p 1

[Page One Editorial:

[Text ]



"World's Ships Wait To Trade With Australia")

AN armada of ships costing a fortune to lay idle waits to trade with an Australia that has been so wealthy for so long it has ceased to worry where that wealth comes from.

This is the scene off the port of Newcastle, NSW, os 23 coal and grain ships destined for Japan, Korea and European ports wait for the officials of two unions to settle their fight for supremacy.

It is the sort of scene countless Australian delegations to Japan and other customers promised would never occur ogain. But it has. The Australian Council of Trade Unions promised that the lesson had been learnt But it has not.

it we hod ony sense of the damage that this and other similar strikes, do to our trading opportunities and therefore to the stondord of living of ourselves, our children and our

we would have a system that would have

The tolerance of the damage that they have coused in this dispute makes a mockery of the pretensions of organised labor to care about unemployment and job prospects. especially for the young.

Look at this picture, absorb the message, and then ask whether this is the sort of Australha we want to build and hand on to future generations.

It is time that we decided that unions cannot have power without responsibility.


TPRS-SEA-85-020 i Fesruary 1985


Sydney THE AUSTRALIAN in Engiish 13 Dec 84 p 3

[Article by Ross Peake}

[Text }

THE Defence Depart- -

ment will be told by its new Minister, Mr Kim Beazley, to completely review how it

ee guarded. Mr Beaziey foreshadowed his in- tent to ensure that ALP phi- losophy is implemented by the department.



“I want to satisfy myself that the way we are defining

our equipment and person-

nel requirements does actually fit into the strategy of the Labor Party,” he said.

“Any relatively new gov- ernment with different

short period of time, to as-

sure itself of the of

the direction of its - Beazley he


was not criticising the out- minister for defence, r Scholes, for not under- taking a similar review, but said recent developments

now made it necessary. Mr Beazley said the Whit- lam Labor Government

strategy from forward defence to self- reliance.

Defence forces were being moved out of south-east Aus- tralia into the north, in line be the new strategy, he

However, the defence in-

eo eee by the old strat- egy, he said.

Mr Beariey's task is made more difficult by a parlia- mentary report before the election which said Australia could »ut only a handful of troops into the field at short notice. He acknow

, ledged there was still widespread community scepticism of Australia's self-reliance.

“What I would like to see at the end of this three-year



Mee ii mall

fate Hee aul ilhil Hahinh




TPRS-SEA-~B5-020 1 Feeruary 1°05


BK131124 (Clandestine) Voice of the People of Burma in Burmese 1200 GMT 12 Jan 85

[Unattributed “article”: “Burma's Economic Situation During 1984")

[Text] As they enter into the year 1985 the people of Burma, who have been bearing various burdens imposed on them by the military government, are likely to look back at the events of 1984. They are likely to recall the hardships they suffered and the speeches delivered during the year by the top leaders

of the military clique.

The speech delivered to the officials of various organs of power in Rangoon Division by the so-called president at the Kyaikkasan Crounds in Rangoon on 20 June can be described as a summary of opinions expressed by other top leaders. tHe said Burma's economic situation was good and improving. Well then, can 1984 be said to be a year of improvement only? Or is there any other way to describe it? What kind of outstanding economic performance was made by the military government? Let us review the situation.

During the year, the so-called prime minister visited Australia, New Zealand, and Czechoslovakia. The deputy prime minister and minister of finance and planning visited various countries including the TRC. The so-called president visited Japan and China, while U Ne Win visited Western Europe. Other members of the military government also made trips. However, during these trips, in addition to other matters, talks were held and agreements were signed on as- sistance and loans by the military government. These trips showed that the top leaders of the military clique had to go abroad in a flurry to seek assis- tance.

An extraordinary step taken during 1984 was the establishment of a joint enter- prise between the FRG's Fritz Werner and the military government's Heavy Indus- tries Corporation. This was the first time the military government established a joint enterprise with capitalists from abroad during its 22-year-old rule.

It can be said that the military government took his new bold step because its existing policies were not working.

There is a saying: If it must spill, let it spill into one's own pocket. A point to note here is that the military clique, knowing that it was about to


be exploited by foreign capitalists, decided to choose a familiar master and creditor--the company which helred set up a C-3 firearm and ammunition plant--to benefit from the deal. It is common knowledge that the venture is the result of the tour to Western Europe by the top boss of the militzry clique.

Another extraordinary event was the visit to Japan by the military government's so-called president during which a record amount of loans were obtained and rice produced in the country was handed over to Japan. The military govern- ment's rice was not popular in the world market and it resorted to handing

over the rice to Japanese capitalists.

Furthermore, the import of oil during 1984 further impoverished the military clique which was short of foreign exchange. This reveals the true plight of the military clique which had once boasted that Burma became